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If the Alabama-Texas match-up had come before Thanksgiving, I would imagine oddsmakers would have a tough time setting a line.

Texas seemed to be dominating in a weaker conference, having only faced a challenge from Oklahoma and a bit of one from a feisty Texas Tech team before Shedgate made headlines. Alabama on the other hand had barely escaped Tennessee, relying on blocked kicks to do it, and was on its heels for three-quarters of their early November game against the LSU.

If the two teams had matched up on Thanksgiving day, the Horns may have been a three point favorite. At worst, it would have been a pick-em game. Then the conference championships happened. Alabama looked the strongest they have looked all season, throttling Florida 32-13. Texas was another story altogether. With Mack Brown seemingly suffering a stroke on the sideline in the final minute, and Colt McCoy showing the clock management skills of Donovan McNabb, the Longhorns were one second away from having their title hopes sacked by Ndamukong Suh and the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

While one game can sometimes be too small of a sampling to analyze a team, the Longhorns near-loss and Tide blowout are great examples of the two teams at the end of the year. Those games showed what many thought: the Longhorns can not run the ball and the Tide is coming together at the right time.

Of course, the beauty of college football is that that was a month ago. Both coaches have had time to fine tune their teams leading up to the big game. For the Longhorns, the lesson learned in the Big 12 title game was clear: either they figure out a way to improve their running game, or the season will not end in confetti-strewn celebration.

Early in the season, the Horns seemed reluctant to let McCoy run the ball too much, even though he had led the team in rushing the previous season. But the only way they are going to have a chance on Thursday night is by putting the ball in the record-setting QBs hands. The Texas offensive live was overpowered against Nebraska and will be looking to redeem itself against the Tide.

In order to put pressure on McCoy, the Tide will likely occasionally bring a safety up to play a strong front eight to put pressure on the QB to keep him from running. That will leave Malcolm Williams and Jordan Shipley in man-to-man coverage on the outside. How Williams and Shipley are able to work in single coverage, and the extent to which they are able to get open and get open fast will go a long way in determining whether the Horns will have another miserable 13 point showing as they did against the Huskers.

If Saban is smart, and there is little doubt he is, he will follow the Huskers lead and run zone schemes that make the Horns screen-passing game a near impossibility. Expect All-American linebacker Rolando McLain will be a major key in spying McCoy in order to take away quick slants and chase the QB out of the pocket, as he did against Tim Tebow. It will be interesting to see if, in order to keep McClain and the rest of the defense honest, offensive coordinator Greg Davis chooses to release his young receiving corps and send them deep early. If the Horns waste their first few drives with failed draw plays and wide receiver screens, they may get behind the 8 ball early. Davis conservative play calling may finally come back to haunt him unless McCoy can pull off some Vince Young-like heroics with his feet.

Although he looked shaky early in the season, Alabama QB Greg McElroy has found his footing and has not thrown an interception since the first week of November. While he faced a tough task with the Florida offense, the quarterback who has never lost a game will face an even tougher task with the two-headed monster of DE Sergio Kindle and S Earl Thomas. Kindle can provide a steady pass rush while also dropping back into the middle zone to disrupt crossing patterns, and Thomas has been a beast this year, locking down receivers in coverage when hes not roaming in zones and intercepting passes.

How much McElroy will need to throw the ball will rely on his lines ability to provide holes for Mark Ingram. If the Heisman winner is able to establish himself early on the ground, he may be able to open up the play-action game for Alabama and also pop loose on the outside himself for some potentially devastating screens against a Horns defense that tends to overpursue on the edges.

Alabamas proven ability to run big chunks of time with multiple-play drives could be the deciding factor in this game. Unlike Texas, they have proven they can score against elite defenses. For Texas to win, they are going to need a pick from Watson (or someone else), a great return or two in the kicking game and some success in the vertical passing game (something they have not been able to do all year). Thats a lot of ifs.

While both teams are supremely talented and will no doubt be prepared (in very different manners by their contrasting coaches), expect Alabama to pull out the victory.

It's been another great year and looking forward to a grand finale in tonite's Rose Bowl, which has the making for an instant classic.