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San Diego Chargers and New York Jets Prediction
Written by Kurt T. Poway on 01/17/2010
Talk about two teams with two very different ethos. The New York Jets were left for dead three weeks ago, even their coach thought they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Jump to a week ago, and Jets coach Rex Ryan is declaring that his team should be the favorite all the way to the Super Bowl. Talk about swagger. Then you have the San Diego Chargers. They have not lost a game in December in about 50 years, it seems. They bounced back from a horrific start to almost run the table the last three months of the season, and their coach Norv Turner is finally getting some “maybe this guy is better than we all have given him credit for” stories. But something doesn’t feel right about the team. They are the favorite, and should be, but they don’t feel like one. Their run defense is horrible, which will kill you in the playoffs, and their running game, which once seemed so solid now feels shaky. Sure, they can outscore a team with a mediocre defense, but can they take care of business against a team with a great defense and once that can run the ball better than they? The Jets proved last week that they aren’t a one-dimensional team, not just in terms of being able to pass and run the ball but the fact that they can beat you on the run with two backs, as proven by the emergence of Shonn Greene against the Bengals. Thomas Jones and Green will have to establish the run early to keep the Chargers blitzes honest, at which point Mark Sanchez will be able to work short routes and quick hits over the middle. Sanchez was a disaster for half of the season and ended up throwing more interceptions than touchdowns this season, but he composed himself and had the game of his career in Cincinnati. Whether he can keep his head on and make smart decisions will go a long way in determining what the Jets do offensively. He will undoubtedly have a mixture of nerves and excitement as he returns to southern California, and his ability to stay within himself if key. The Jets defense in round one proved to be everything people expected from them all year, and was worthy of the praise they were receiving at the start of the year. However, they were able to feast on a hobbled and shaky Bengals offense last week. Philip Rivers and the Chargers should pose greater and more nuanced problems for one of the league’s best defenses. Corner Darrelle Revis is being compared to Ron Woodson and Deon Sanders already, and while he is deserving of the laurels being bestowed upon him, unfortunately for the Jets, Revis can only cover one receiver at a time. The Chargers will use a multitude of looks, switching Antonio Gates from the slot to the outside to the backfield, and putting Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd on both sides of the ball throughout the game. Revis will likely spend much of his time hounding Jackson, which should give the taller Gates and Floyd significant advantages over the smaller Dwight Lowery, Kerry Rhodes and Lito Shepphard. The Charers have not run the ball well this season, and since the Jets have proven to be such great stoppers of the run, Rivers may have to use the short passing game as a substitute for the run. The Jets like to play an overly aggressive blitzing style, and if Darren Sproles can catch a quick screen on the outside of the over pursuit, he could burn the Jets all afternoon until they finally sit back a bit, giving LaDainian Tomlinson a chance to sneak in a few big rushes possibly off draw plays, which could end up being huge for the Chargers. This game will feature two of the hottest teams in the NFL and definitely the two hottest in the AFC. They cancel each other out in that their strengths match the other’s weaknesses. The game will likely come down to the ability of Sanchez to repeat his performance of a week ago against the Bengals. And while he does seem to be finding his mojo at the right time, it’s very hard to bet on a rookie quarterback on the road in the playoffs. Then again, he did it once, and this time it will be in comfy southern California. Should be a great one.
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